Search initially changed technology and the way marketers market. Now technology is changing search.

Driven by the rapid acceleration of retail media, as well as new generative AI applications, total search spending is projected to reach $350 billion this year, according to a new global forecast released by WARC (World Advertising Research Center).

“Traditional search,” including paid and SEO (search engine optimization), will grow to $256.5 billion — or nearly three-quarters of that total — but search-based retail media will account for more than a quarter of the total (26.5%).

WARC’s new search forecast estimates the U.S. holds 40% of the global search market, which will grow 12% this year to nearly $100 billion.

In Asia-Pacific, where social commerce is far more established, paid search’s share of advertising budgets will actually fall to 17%.

“As consumers pivot away from text-based search towards discovery on social, generative AI reinvents the search experience,” writes WARC Head of Content Alex Brownsell.

With the explosive growth of retail media — the majority of which is actually search-related — Google’s long-standing market dominance is set to come under unprecedented pressure, he notes.

Marketers may be forced to make tradeoffs as to where their ad spend goes, as brands commit more budget toward retail media and the number of platforms like Walmart, Target, and others increase.

The data also shows that advertisers will need to rethink their approach to paid search and search engine optimization (SEO), and particularly how their brands serve up toward the bottom of the purchase funnel.

Search experiences are fragmenting across platforms, with younger audiences increasingly favoring searches for information and inspiration on visual platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, Pinterest and YouTube or RED, Douyin and Zhihu in China.

These changes will force Google’s dominance to wane. The report estimates Google’s share of total search will fall from 51.0% in 2021 to 50.4% in 2023.

Microsoft has its own challenges with its search engine Bing and advertising network. In terms of the global advertising perception of Bing, the percentage of advertisers who think Bing performs worse in relation to other platforms is high — a least higher than Microsoft would like.

WARC surveyed more than 1,700 marketers worldwide. The survey asked respondents to cite which of the advertising platforms listed performed the worst. The choices were Bing, Facebook, TikTok, Amazon, Google, YouTube, and Instagram.

Microsoft is attempting to reposition itself, but in this survey it had the highest values.

The data suggests 50% of those participating in the study think audience reach and targeting on Bing is worse than other platforms. Some 46% say access to informative formats and tools is less, while 44% cite advertising effectiveness and performance, and 41% cite the breadth and depth of audience insights.

“Traditional search,” including paid and SEO, will grow to $ 256.5 billion — or nearly three-quarters of that total — while retail media will account for more than a quarter of the total (26.5%), according to a forecast from WARC.