The United Steelworkers union is counting on clean energy projects to spur membership growth, offsetting losses at oil refining and petrochemical plants, a union official said, even if Donald Trump wins the presidential election on Nov. 5.

The USW, which represents about 30,000 crude oil refinery and petrochemical chemical plant workers in North America, said major growth may be coming as projects backed by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act are built and provisions supporting union-jobs deployed.

“We anticipate it being a time of growth,” said Larry Burchfield, director of USW District 13, which includes four U.S. oil rich states, at a regional meeting in Louisiana last Friday.

He said there is a potential for 17,000 new union jobs through projects backed by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Republican candidate Trump has vowed to gut the Biden administration’s signature climate law that provides tax breaks for clean energy projects, but Burchfield said he is confident that will not happen as it was backed by both Democrats and Republicans. Any changes would need Congressional approval.

“The Inflation Reduction Act was a bipartisan bill,” Burchfield said. “There’s a lot all sewed up in the IRA. It would take a lot to undo it.”

He remained optimistic about building membership even though there have been no union wins at fast-growing gas processing or wind projects while 1,400 jobs have been lost with refineries closing.

At least 300 more USW jobs are expected to be lost in early 2025 as LyondellBasell Industries’ Houston refinery halts processing in early 2025.

And refiner Phillips 66’s plan to shut its Los Angeles refinery complex in late 2025 will cost up to 900 total jobs, mostly USW members.

At least five U.S. oil refineries have closed in the last four years as rising costs and forecasts for weaker fuel demand.

Companies receiving U.S. support promise to be neutral in union campaigns or to allow card check agreements, where workers can approve union representation by signing a card, Burchfield said.

So far 30 companies in District 13 have pledged to be neutral and two companies have agreed to card check campaigns, he said.

(This story has been corrected to remove the name of a company in paragraph 12)

—Erwin Seba, Reuters